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In an efficient market, all stocks should be valued at a price that is consistent with available information. But as financial expert Vijay Singal, Ph.D., CFA, points out, there are circumstances under which certain stocks sell at a price higher or lower than the right price. In Beyond the Random Walk, Singal discusses ten such anomalous prices and shows how investors might--or might not--be able to exploit these situations for profit.
The author distills several decades of academic research into a focused discussion of market anomalies that is both accessible and useful to people with varied backgrounds. Past empirical evidence is supplemented with author's own research using more recent data. Anomalies covered include the "December Effect," "Momentum in Industry Stocks," "S&P 500 Index Changes," "Trading by Insiders," and "Merger Arbitrage." In each chapter, the author describes the particular anomaly, explains how it occurs, shows ways to take advantage of the anomaly, and highlights the risks involved. We learn, for example, that shares of stocks that have appreciated in recent months become scarce in late December, because investors wait until January before they sell (to postpone payment of taxes on profits). This scarcity drives the price up--the "December Effect"--and smart buyers can make the equivalent of 75% annual return on a five-day investment. Each chapter includes suggestions for further reading as well as tables and graphs that support the discussion. The book concludes with a preview of many other interesting anomalies and a section on how investor behavior might influence prices.
Clearly written and informative, this well-researched volume is a must read for investors, traders, market specialists, and students of financial markets.
- Sales Rank: #1926123 in Books
- Published on: 2006-06-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 6.10" h x 1.10" w x 9.20" l, 1.21 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 384 pages
Review
"Beyond the Random Walk is the definitive work on how stocks can be persistently mis-priced, lucidly and comprehensively cataloging market inefficiencies. It offers investors sensible strategies to exploit valuable investment opportunities and is a critical reference for researchers." --Lawrence A. Cunningham, Boston College, author of The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America
"Vijay Singal's interesting book provides an overall treatment of the return anomalies that have gripped the attention of academics and investors alike. It is a good source for those who want to understand stock market anomalies, and a useful guide for those who want to trade on them. As always, those seeking to beat the market would do well to remind themselves about the perils of overconfidence, and the attendant risks that trading on sentiment entails."--Hersh Shefrin, Santa Clara University, author of Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing
"We can thank Vijay Singal for categorizing the major stock market inefficiencies, and for telling us how to make money from them."--Roger G. Ibbotson, Yale School of Management, and Chairman, Ibbotson Associates
"Singal provides an easy-to-read introduction to the pricing anomalies discovered by academics and exploited by traders. Understanding these anomalies will help you identify the systematic mistakes traders make and how you might profit from them."--Larry Harris, Fred V. Keenan Chair in Finance, Marshall School of Business at USC, author of Trading & Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners
"Understanding how the markets work and how to exploit them for profit is what makes Wall Street tick. Successful investing is based on extracting small low risk profits; this is what separates good managers from great ones. By explaining how to look for, spot and take advantage of anomalies Singal is about to create a whole new class of great managers. It is clear that his research, experience, and expertise are something all investors should take advantage of as they try to navigate the randomness and not so randomness that is the market."--Daniel A. Strachman, author of Essential Stock Picking Strategies and Editor of The Strachman Report
"This is a comprehensive look at financial market anomalies in language that is accessible to all. While no book on the market offers foolproof ways of making money, this book will certainly be an instructive read and bring the lay person up to speed on the latest research."--Raghuram Rajan, Joseph Gidwitz Professor of Finance, University of Chicago
"This is a very nice summary of the academic literature on anomalies, and contains some intriguing suggestions for taking advantage of them." --Andrew W. Lo, MIT
"A great Christmas gift for investors."--SmartMoney
About the Author
Vijay Singal is J. Gray Ferguson Professor of Finance and Chairperson of the Finance Department at the Pamplin College of Business of Virginia Tech. Dr. Singal is an author of many academic and practitioner articles.
Most helpful customer reviews
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Great book on market mispricings
By A Customer
I never thought I would see a book on the stock market that is believable, yet useful. Malkiel's book on Random Walk is accurate but according to that you can't do anything. Singal's book is aptly titled "Beyond the Random Walk". He seems to believe in market efficiency but says that there are times when the market or a few stocks are not correctly priced.
The book talks about these mispricings in a refreshingly simple language though it relies on amazing amount of research. Also has trading strategies that are useful.
I would recommend it.
13 of 14 people found the following review helpful.
Detailed and Useful Trading Strategies....
By dennis wentraub
The financial markets give investors a chance to make money when they work - and when they don't. When markets work efficiently they uncover the true value of an asset by pegging its fair price for informed buyers and sellers. When for a variety of reasons markets are inefficient they misprice assets. When the specific circumstances of that mispricing are recognized and persistent (viz. predictable) it is an anomaly. The regularity of anomalies offers investors, at least in theory, the opportunity to profit by taking a position that recognizes the temporary nature of the mispricing before it rights itself. These anomalies are the subject of Singal's study which takes its title from the updated 1970's classic exposition of the efficient market hypothesis by Princeton Economics professor Burton Malkiel.
This is a detailed look at ten market anomalies. Singal's goal is to move us well beyond descriptions and academic evidence and offer trading strategies intended to achieve an outsized market return. Each chapter summarizes key points and projects potential returns from implementing the outlined strategy. Additional market anomalies are briefly identified in the final chapter. As a bonus of sorts an appendix gives the most detailed explanation of short selling I have read.
From a practical standpoint some anomalous situations would appear to be more exploitable than others. Mergers between public companies occur with some frequency, so an understanding of how to play the merger premium paid by acquiring companies for their target is useful. Changes to the composition of the S&P 500 Index and their impact on stock prices occur with less frequency, but this is balanced by opportunities from the January and "New December Effect" (mark your calendars). From anecdotal observations, I am not convinced by the author's discussion of the Weekend Effect, and the chapter on International Investing seems like a fair argument for diversification rather than an anomaly. The so-called Value Line Enigma identified in the final chapter is perplexing to this reader, since the supposed outperformance of their recommended stocks runs directly counter to a similar study of mutual funds picked by Morningstar. An apples to oranges comparison to some, perhaps, but it is a sufficiently known study to warrant comment. A chapter dealing with currency forward rates will be beyond most non-professional investors. I would have liked to have heard more about spin-offs, the long-term overperformance of "independent" subsidiaries occasionally distributed to shareholders of a parent company. Singal identifies the simpler, "sharper" corporate mission as the reason. Actually, it may be strong sponsorship and generous, upfront management incentives which spark those returns.
The question remains, does this serious academic study offer practical trading strategies to investors bent on gain. The answer is that Singal has so many ideas packed into the book that investors will be influenced in the aggregate in their trading decisions. Not to be aware of these market biases exposes traders to more uncertainty and risk than may be necessary.
12 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Something for investors
By A Customer
I was looking for information on timing mutual funds and stumbled on the site of this book: [...] I was so intrigued by the book that I ordered it. Not a bad book at all. It explained everything I wanted to know about mispricing of mutual fund NAVs in a very simple language. Amazing that these people (Singal and others) have known about it for almost 10 years -- and investors like me did not know. This is just one chapter in the book. There are ten anomalies he discusses. Worth a lot more than the $30 I paid for it.
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